Hill & Knowlton
UK Election Watch 2005
Predict by Split
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Target seats by party

Labour 'Targets'
Constituency Party Maj. (%) Labour Challenger Sitting MP
(candidate)
Basingstoke Conservative* 1.8 Paul Harvey Andrew Hunter* (Maria Miller)
Brent East Lib Dem (by-election) 5.3 Yasmin Qureshi Sarah Teather
Leicester South Lib Dem (by-election) 5.6 Peter Soulsby Parmjit Singh Gill
Wyre Forest Independent 35.9 Marc Bayliss Dr Richard Taylor
* Andrew Hunter resigned the Conservative whip during the last Parliament as Democratic Unionist
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Conservative 'Targets'
Constituency Party Maj. (%) Conservative Challenger Sitting MP
(candidate)
Cheadle Lib Dem 0.1 Stephen Day Patsy Calton
Dumfries and Galloway Labour 0.3 Peter Duncan Russell Brown
Dorset South Labour 0.3 Ed Matts Jim Knight
Braintree Labour 0.7 Brooks Newmark Alan Hurst
Weston-Super-Mare Lib Dem 0.7 John Penrose Brian Cotter
Monmouth Labour 0.9 David Davies Huw Edwards
Lancaster and Wyre Labour 0.9 Ben Wallace Hilton Dawson* (Anne Sacks)
Norfolk North Lib Dem 0.9 Iain Dale Norman Lamb
Dorset Mid and Poole North Lib Dem 0.9 Simon Hayes Annette Brooke
Guildford Lib Dem 1.1 Anne Milton Sue Doughty
Kettering Labour 1.2 Philip Hollobone Philip Sawford
Somerton and Frome Lib Dem 1.3 Clive Allen David Heath
Angus SNP 1.5 Sandy Bushby Michael Weir
Northampton South Labour 1.7 Brian Binley Tony Clark
Brecon and Radnorshire Lib Dem 2.0 Andrew Davies Alan Williams
Devon West and Torridge Lib Dem 2.1 Geoffrey Cox John Burnett* (David Walter)
Hereford Lib Dem 2.2 Virginia Taylor Paul Keetch
Welwyn Hatfield Labour 2.8 Grant Shapps Melanie Johnson
Shipley Labour 3.1 Philip Davies Chris Leslie
Clwyd West Labour 3.2 David Jones Gareth Thomas
Bexleyheath & Crayford Labour 3.6 David Evennett Nigel Beard
Ludlow Lib Dem 3.8 Peter Dunne Matthew Green
Milton Keynes North East Labour 3.9 Mark Lancaster Brian White
Hornchurch Labour 4.2 James Brokenshire John Cryer
Selby Labour 4.3 Mark Menzies John Grogan
Hammersmith and Fulham Labour 4.5 Greg Hands Iain Coleman* (Melanie Smallman)
Thanet South Labour 4.5 Mark MacGregor Stephen Ladyman
Forest of Dean Labour 4.6 Mark Harper Diana Organ* (Isabal Owen)
Wellingborough Labour 4.6 Peter Bone Paul Stinchcombe
Newbury Lib Dem 4.8 Richard Benyon David Rendel
Romsey Lib Dem 4.9 Caroline Nokes Sandra Gidley
Teignbridge Lib Dem 5.1 Stanley Johnson Richard Younger-Ross
Rugby and Kenilworth Labour 5.3 Jeremy Wright Andy King
Ilford North Labour 5.3 Lee Scott Linda Perham
Gillingham Labour 5.4 Tim Butcher Paul Clark
Harwich Labour 5.4 Douglas Carswell Ivan Henderson
Enfield North Labour 6.0 Nick De Bois Joan Ryan
Devon North Lib Dem 6.1 Orlando Fraser Nick Harvey
Eastleigh Lib Dem 6.4 Conor Burns David Chidgey* (Chris Huhne)
Calder Valley Labour 6.5 Liz Truss Chris McCafferty
Moray # SNP 6.5 Jamie Halcro-Johnston Angus Robertson
Redditch Labour 6.7 Karen Lumley Jacqui Smith
Shrewsbury and Atcham Labour 7.2 Daniel Kawczynski Paul Marsden* (Mike Ion)
Peterborough Labour 7.2 Stewart Jackson Helen Clark
Southport Lib Dem 7.3 Mark Bigley John Pugh
Dartford Labour 7.4 Gareth Johnson Howard Stoate
Scarborough & Whitby Labour 7.5 Robert Goodwill Lawrie Quinn
Hove Labour 7.6 Nicholas Boles Ivor Caplin*
Preseli Pembrokeshire Labour 8.0 Stephen Crabbe Jackie Lawrence* (Sue Hayman)
Gloucester Labour 8.0 Paul James Parmjit Dhanda
Bristol West # Labour 8.0 David Martin Valerie Davey
Putney Labour 8.1 Justine Greening Tony Colman
Yeovil Lib Dem 8.2 Ian Jenkins David Laws
Hemel Hempstead Labour 8.2 Mike Penning Tony McWalter
South Ribble Labour 8.2 Lorraine Fullbrook David Borrow
Finchley & Golders Green Labour 8.5 Andrew Mennear Rudi Vis
Wolverhampton South West Labour 8.5 Sandip Verma Rob Marris
Wrekin, The Labour 8.6 Mark Pritchard Peter Bradley
Croydon Central Labour 8.7 Andrew Pelling Geraint Davies
Elmet Labour 9.1 Andrew Millard Colin Burgon
Stroud Labour 9.1 Neil Carmichael Davd Drew
Wimbledon Labour 9.1 Stephen Hammond Roger Casale
Keighley Labour 9.2 Karl Poulsen Ann Cryer
Argyll and Bute Lib Dem 9.2 Jamie McGrigor MSP Alan Reid
Sittingbourne & Sheppey Labour 9.3 Gordon Henderson Derek Wyatt
High Peak Labour 9.3 Andrew Bingham Tom Levitt
Stourbridge Labour 9.5 Diana Coad Debra Shipley* (Lynda Waltho)
Brigg and Goole Labour 9.6 Matthew Bean Ian Cawsey
Falmouth & Camborne Labour 9.7 Ashley Crossley Candy Atherton
Medway Labour 9.8 Mark Reckless Bob Marshall-Andrews
Colne Valley Labour 9.9 Maggie Throup Kali Mountford
Wirral West Labour 10.0 Esther McVey Stephen Hesford
Richmond Park Lib Dem 10.1 Marco Forgione Jenny Tonge* (Susan Kramer)
St Albans Labour 10.2 Anne Main Kerry Pollard
Cornwall South East Lib Dem 10.4 Ashley Gray Colin Breed
Burton Labour 10.4 Adrian Pepper Janet Dean
Vale of Glamorgan Labour 10.4 Alun Cairns John Smith
Hastings and Rye Labour 10.5 Mark Coote Michael Jabez Foster
Pendle Labour 10.8 Jane Ellison Gordon Prentice
Sutton and Cheam Lib Dem 10.8 Richard Willis Paul Burstow
Bradford West Labour 10.9 Haroon Rashid Marsha Singh
Chatham & Aylesford Labour 10.9 Anne Jobson Jonathan Shaw
East Dunbartonshire # Labour 10.9 David Jack John Lyons
Perth and North Perthshire SNP 11.0 Douglas Taylor Pete Wishart
Warwick and Leamington Labour 11.1 Chris White James Plaskitt
Gravesham Labour 11.1 Adam Holloway Chris Pond
Carshalton and Wallington Lib Dem 11.2 Ken Andrew Tom Brake
Great Yarmouth Labour 11.3 Mark Fox Tony D Wright
Stafford Labour 11.3 David Chambers David Kidney
Wansdyke Labour 11.3 Chris Watt Dan Norris
Tamworth Labour 11.4 Christopher Pincher Brian Jenkins
Dover Labour 11.6 Paul Watkins Gwyn Prosser
Rossendale & Darwen Labour 11.9 Nigel Adams Janet Anderson
Watford Labour 12.0 Ali Miraj Claire Ward
Broxtowe Labour 12.0 Bob Seely Nick Palmer
Corby Labour 12.1 Andrew Griffith Phil Hope
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Labour 12.1 David Mundell MSP new seat
Morecambe & Lunesdale Labour 12.2 James Airey Geraldine Smith
Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South Labour 12.3 David Morris Nick Ainger
Leeds North West Labour 12.3 George Lee Harold Best* (Judith Blake)
Birmingham Edgbaston Labour 12.4 Deirdre Alden Gisela Stuart
Pudsey Labour 12.5 Pamela Singleton Paul Truswell
Ynys Mon # Labour 12.5 James Roach Albert Owen
Brighton Kemptown Labour 12.6 Judith Symes Des Turner
Cheltenham Lib Dem 12.6 Vanessa Gearson Nigel Jones* (Martin Horwood)
Wirral South Labour 12.7 Carl Cross Ben Chapman
Colchester Lib Dem 12.7 Kevin Bentley Bob Russell
Reading East Labour 12.8 Rob Wilson Jane Griffiths* (Tony Page)
Gedling Labour 12.8 Anna Soubry Vernon Coaker
Norwich North Labour 12.9 James Tumbridge Ian Gibson
Harlow Labour 13.0 Robert Halfon Bill Rammell
Worcester Labour 13.0 Margaret Harper Michael J Foster
Batley & Spen Labour 13.1 Robert Light Mike Wood
Harrow West Labour 13.2 Mike Freer Gareth R Thomas
Cleethorpes Labour 13.2 Martin Vickers Shona McIsaac
Enfield Southgate Labour 13.2 David Burrowes Stephen Twigg
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Lib Dem 13.4 Alex Johnstone Sir Robert Smith
Blackpool North and Fleetwood Labour 13.4 Gavin Williamson Joan Humble
Bolton West Labour 13.4 Philip Allott Ruth Kelly
Battersea Labour 13.7 Dominic Schofield Martin Linton
Staffordshire Moorlands Labour 13.7 Marcus Hayes Charlotte Atkins
Portsmouth North Labour 13.9 Penny Mordaunt Syd Rapson* (Sarah McCarthy-Fry)
Torbay Lib Dem 14.1 Marcus Wood Adrian Sanders
Cardiff North Labour 14.3 Jonathan Morgan Julie Morgan
Copeland Labour 14.3 Chris Whiteside Jack Cunningham* (Jamie Reed)
Erewash Labour 14.3 David Simmonds Elisabeth Blackman
Loughborough Labour 14.4 Nicky Morgan Andy Reed
Bury North Labour 14.6 David Nuttall David Chaytor
Derbyshire South Labour 15.1 Simon Spencer Mark Todd
Bedford Labour 15.2 Richard Fuller Patrick Hall
Halifax Labour 15.2 Kris Hopkins Alice Mahon* (Linda Riordan)
Twickenham Lib Dem 15.3 Paul Maynard Vincent Cable
Chester, City of Labour 15.4 Paul Offer Christine Russell
Milton Keynes South West Labour 15.4 Iain Stewart Phyllis Starkey
Portsmouth South Lib Dem 15.5 Caroline Dinenage Mike Hancock
Derby North Labour 15.8 Richard Aitken-Davies Bob Laxton
Truro & St Austell Lib Dem 16.0 Fiona Kemp Matthew Taylor
Amber Valley Labour 16.2 Gillian Shaw Judy Mallaber
Warrington South Labour 16.3 Fiona Bruce Helen Southworth
Winchester Lib Dem 16.3 George Hollingbery Mark Oaten
Carlisle Labour 16.3 Mike Mitchelson Eric Martlew
Edinburgh South # Labour 16.6 Gordon Buchan Nigel Griffiths
Edinburgh West # Lib Dem 16.6 David Brogan John Barrett
Swindon South Labour 16.9 Robert Buckland Julia Drown* (Anne Snelgrove)
Crawley Labour 17.1 Henry Smith Laura Moffatt
Nuneaton Labour 17.4 Mark Pawsey Bill Olner
Dudley North Labour 17.6 Ian Hillas Ross Cranston (Ian Austin)
Chorley Labour 17.6 Simon Mallett Lindsay Hoyle
Northavon Lib Dem 17.7 Chris Butt Steve Webb
Leeds North East Labour 17.8 Matthew Lobley Fabian Hamilton
Vale of Clwyd Labour 17.8 Felicity Elphick Chris Ruane
Oxford West and Abingdon Lib Dem 17.8 Amanda McLean Evan Harris
Edinburgh South West Labour 17.9 Gordan Buchan Alistair Darling
Conwy Labour 18.1 Guto Bebb Betty Williams
Leicestershire North West Labour 18.1 Nicola Le Page David Taylor
Waveney Labour 18.1 Peter Aldous Bob Blizzard
Cornwall North Lib Dem 18.2 Mark Formosa Paul Tyler* (Dan Rogerson)
Aberdeen South # Labour 18.2 Stewart Whyte Anne Begg
Hendon Labour 18.2 Richard Evans Andrew Dismore
Halesowen and Rowley Regis Labour 18.7 Les Jones Sylvia Heal
Dudley South Labour 18.8 Marco Longhi Ian Pearson
Basildon Labour 18.9 Aaron Powell Angela Smith
East Renfrewshire Labour 18.9 Richard Cook Jim Murphy
North Ayrshire and Arran Labour 19.0 Stewart Connall Brian Wilson* (Katy Clark)
Northampton North Labour 19.0 Damian Collins Sally Keeble
Swindon North Labour 19.1 Justin Tomlinson Michael Wills
Plymouth Sutton Labour 19.2 Oliver Colvile Linda Gilroy
Stirling Labour 19.3 Stephen Kerr Anne McGuire
Wakefield Labour 19.3 Alec Shelbrooke David Hinchliffe* (Mary Creagh)
Wyre Forest Independent 39.0 Mark Garnier Dr Richard Taylor
# Conservatives in third place. Majority (%) refers to the distance between first and third place.
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Liberal Democrat 'Targets'
Constituency Party Maj. (%) Lib Dem Challenger Sitting MP
(candidate)
Taunton Conservative 0.4 Jeremy Browne Adrian Flook
Orpington Conservative 0.5 Chris Maines John Horam
Surrey South West Conservative 1.7 Simon Cordon Virginia Bottomley* (Jeremy Hunt)
Cardiff Central Labour 1.9 Jenny Willott Jon Owen Jones
Inverness Nairn Badenoch & Strathspey Labour 2.7 Danny Alexander David Stewart
Dorset West Conservative 2.9 Justine McGuinness Oliver Letwin
Haltemprice and Howden Conservative 4.3 Jon Neal David Davis
Isle of Wight Conservative 4.5 Anthony Rowlands Andrew Turner
Eastbourne Conservative 4.8 Stephen Lloyd Nigel Waterson
Wells Conservative 5.4 Tessa Munt David Heathcoat-Amory
Oldham East & Saddleworth Labour 6.0 Tony Dawson Phil Woolas
East Dunbartonshire # Labour 6.3 Jo Swinson John Lyons
Westmorland and Lonsdale Conservative 6.6 Tim Farron Tim Collins
Wiltshire North Conservative 7.3 Paul Fox James Gray
Totnes Conservative 7.3 Michael Treleaven Anthony Steen
Maidenhead Conservative 7.6 Kathryn Newbound Theresa May
Dorset North Conservative 7.9 Emily Gasson Robert Walter
Bristol West # Labour 8.0 Stephen Williams Valerie Davey
Birmingham Yardley Labour 8.6 John Hemming Estelle Morris*
New Forest East Conservative 9.1 Brian Dash Julian Lewis
Aberdeen South # Labour 9.5 Vicki Harris Anne Begg
Bournemouth East Conservative 9.6 Andrew Garratt David Atkinson* (Tobias Elwood)
Bridgwater Conservative 10.4 James Main Iain Liddell-Grainger
Westbury Conservative 10.5 Duncan Hames Andrew Murrison
Ryedale Conservative 11.1 Gordon Beever John Greenway
Harborough Conservative 11.3 Jill Hope Edward Garnier
Tiverton and Honiton Conservative 11.3 David Nation Angela Browning
Ceredigion Plaid Cymru 11.4 Mark Williams Simon Thomas
Wantage Conservative 11.4 Andrew Crawford Robert Jackson* (Ed Vaizey)
Worcestershire West Conservative 12.0 Tom Wells Michael Spicer
Norfolk South Conservative 12.3 Ian Mack Richard Bacon
Folkestone and Hythe Conservative 12.9 Peter Carroll Michael Howard
Edinburgh South # Labour 14.0 Marilyne MacLaren Nigel Griffiths
Rochdale Labour 14.3 Paul Rowen Lorna Fitzsimons
Leeds North West # Labour 15.0 Greg Mulholland Harold Best* (Judith Blake)
Falmouth & Camborne # Labour 15.1 Julia Goldsworthy Candy Atherton
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale Labour 15.1 Patsy Kenton new seat
Colne Valley # Labour 15.5 Elisabeth Wilson Kali Mountford
Cambridge Labour 20.0 David Howarth Anne Campbell
Blaydon Labour 21.1 Peter Maughan John McWilliam* (Dave Anderson)
Edinburgh North and Leith Labour 21.6 Mike Crockart Mark Lazarowicz
Norwich South # Labour 22.9 Andrew Aalders-Dunthorne Charles Clarke
Birmingham Perry Bar Labour 23.4 Jon Hunt Khalid Mahmood
Hornsey & Wood Green Labour 24.1 Lynne Featherstone Barbara Roche
Conwy # Labour 24.9 Gareth Roberts Betty Williams
Islington South & Finsbury Labour 25.8 Bridget Fox Chris Smith* (Emily Thornberry)
Oxford East Labour 26.0 Steve Goddard Andrew Smith
Hampstead & Highgate # Labour 26.3 Ed Fordham Glenda Jackson
Reading East # Labour 26.3 John Howson Jane Griffiths* (Tony Page)
St Helens South Labour 26.6 Brian Spencer Shaun Woodward
Watford # Labour 27.9 Sal Brinton Claire Ward
Durham, City of Labour 32.4 Carol Woods Gerry Steinberg* (Roberta Blackman-Woods)
Manchester Withington Labour 32.9 John Leech Keith Bradley
Newcastle upon Tyne Central Labour 33.3 Greg Stone Jim Cousins
Sheffield Heeley Labour 34.3 Colin Ross Meg Munn
Sheffield Hillsborough Labour 34.3 John Commons Helen Jackson* (Angela Smith)
Wansbeck Labour 35.0 Simon Reed Denis Murphy
Blyth Valley Labour 35.3 Jeffrey Reid Ronnie Campbell
Liverpool Garston Labour 38.3 Paula Keaveney Maria Eagle
Liverpool Wavertree Labour 38.3 Colin Eldridge Jane Kennedy
Newcastle upon Tyne North Labour 39.7 Ron Beadle Doug Henderson
Liverpool Riverside Labour 54.7 Richard Marbrow Louise Ellman
# Liberal Democrats in third place. Majority (%) refers to the distance between first and third place.
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SNP 'Targets'
Constituency Party Maj. (%) SNP Challenger Sitting MP
(candidate)
Dundee East Labour 1.3 Stewart Hosie Iain Luke
Ochil and South Perthshire Labour 1.8 Annabelle Ewing Martin O'Neill* (Gordon Banks)
Dumfries and Galloway # Labour 7.3 Douglas Henderson Russell Brown
Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Labour 8.2 Angus MacNeil Calum MacDonald
Inverness Nairn Badenoch & Strathspey # Labour 9.2 David Thompson David Stewart
# SNP in third place. Majority (%) in an estimate of the distance between third and first place.
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Plaid Cymru 'Targets'
Constituency Party Maj. (%) Plaid Challenger Sitting MP
(candidate)
Ynys Môn Labour 2.4 Eurig Wyn Albert Owen
Llanelli Labour 17.7 Neil Baker Denzil Davies* (Nia Griffith)
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